Everything you need to know and a lot more about the upcoming 2010 White Sox season. Plus! Backhanded compliments directed at Alexei Ramirez!
A baseball blog! How novel! At the very least, with the White Sox, I will have picked a team unpopular enough that there are few other blogs on this subject that will be written under the influence of as much alcohol as this one. Are you excited about 13 incidences this year where I return from a night of drinking at the Cell to write as I am? The Ozzie Plan I bought is already the best $395 I've ever spent.
In continuing the novelty that is already pumping through every inch of this blog, let's begin with a season preview, because for the life of me I cannot think of what else to do. Unlike most season previews that are actually scheduled ahead of time, and not hastily scrawled during a weekend spent recovering from surgery, I will have the luxury of factoring in Spring performance into my predictions (You're welcome, Mark Teahen!).
So let's breakdown the Sox's roster group-by-group in a manner suitable to manager Ozzie Guillen; with vulgarity and unyielding rage. I'll provide a letter grade for each player to compensate for all my double-talk that makes my true opinions hard to discern. Plus grades are neat, unless you flunked out of high school and are forever shell-shocked by the concept of standardized evaluations.
Catchers:
A.J. Pierzynski: The short-comings are obvious; warning-track power, allergic to RBIs the past two seasons, swings at everything, will never have an OBP over .345 ever in life, fat (Part of the reason I can rationalize dropping nearly $400 on White Sox tickets is that I will have a fair share of moments where I stare and think 'Wow, what an athlete! It's amazing to watch him in person.' A.J. will provide none of these moments). What he can provide consistently is good contact hitting, a batting average that stays above .290, opportunistic baserunning, and the impossible to prove quality that's often to attributed to him of 'calling a good game behind the plate'. On second thought, I don't buy that shit for a second, he gets no credit for that.
Grade: B+. It's easier to appreciate A.J. once you realize how much most catchers suck.
Which brings us to....
Ramon Castro: A backup catcher, and not a penny more. He provides adequate defense and probably three strikeouts a game at the plate. Admittedly, I might prefer three strikeouts to all the double plays he'll hit into this year. Arriving at the ballpark to realize that Ramon is getting the start behind the plate is kind of like finding out your parents aren't coming to your youth soccer game; just a lingering feeling of emptiness casting a pall on an otherwise enjoyable affair. Ramon also makes me wonder if the Sox's catchers have a higher combined weight than any teams carrying three backstops.
Grade: D. The mighty F is reserved for Tyler Flowers and his abysmal Spring training that made retaining Ramon necessary. You did this Tyler, YOU DID THIS!
Infield:
1st Base:
Paul Konerko: Let's start with discussing his defense because who knows what to expect from the plate. Limited in range, but blessed with good reaction time and dynamite picking skills, which have been put to great use ever since the day Alexei Ramirez set foot in the USA, Paulie has evolved defensively from Not-Frank-Thomas to Very Reliable. PK had a nice bounce-back season last year, and seemed to have an outside shot at a 30-HR, 100 RBI season before the all-encompassing late-season swoon swallowed up him along with the rest of the roster. This is a man who has hit over 300 HRs and knocked in 1000 RBIs over his 11 seasons with the Sox, but is also 34 and has had two season-long slumps. I have no idea what to expect.
Grade: B.
Mark Kotsay: Hey! Apparently you're just a first-basemen? That's convenient. It's not like two of our four outfielders are coming off leg injuries or anything. Even though Andruw Jones seems to have stepped out of the rejuvenation machine, Kotsay is still slotted to receive a great deal of playing time at the DH despite underwhelming production last year (To be fair, he led the league last year in Scorching Line Drives Hit Directly to the Right Fielder). While he hasn't put up big power numbers in Spring, it's hard to argue with giving the guy hitting over .400 some playing time. However, Kotsay is 34, it's not like no one has ever given him a chance. He's a solid, but not exceptional player who's career OPS is a perfectly average .750. Good to have him aboard, but I'll own an llama farm in Chile before Kotsay wins AL Player of the Month.
Grade: B-. That last part came off harsh...I do like him, just not in the 3 spot.
2nd Base
Gordon Beckham: September never happened, right buddy?!?! A good spring is erasing the haunting memories of the once well-disciplined rookie phenom swinging and missing at the 1-2 breaking ball in the dirt 63 at bats in a row. At mid-summer last year Gordon seemed like a man put on the Earth to hit in the No. 2 slot and smack timely hits into right-center. He was adequate defensively, with a few more errors than you'd like at Third Base; a position he was thrust into on a whim despite never playing. The cagey Sox remedied Beckham's discomfort by throwing him over to 2nd, another position he hasn't played. I don't quite think Gordon will break-out this year, but he should have an effective season depending on how he responds to the league adjusting to him near the end of last season. My hands are literally shaking as I try to hold in my rant about the decision to switch him to 2nd base until the Alexei Ramirez section.
Grade: B+.
Shortstop
Alexei Ramirez: D_G$%E>FDGFPGF:@!!!!!! Sorry, it all came out at once. Reviewing Alexei's fielding stats I was surprised to see that his error total from last season was listed as 20, with nary an exponent to be found. I would have estimated this number at 68 or higher, but I realize now that errors don't necessarily include being out of position, failing to cover 2nd, or throwing the ball at the speed of 11mph to 1st. Perhaps all these incidents could be lumped into a title labeled simply as 'Fuck-Ups'. Alexei was the unquestioned team leader in Fuck-Ups last year, especially if you counted every uppercut swing for the fences. Which I do. Maybe this stat can just be measured by 'number of times player brings Hawk Harrelson to the brink of cursing on air'. In which case Alexei still leads the team, but is closely followed by Kotsay because of all the lasers he hit to the right fielder. Returning to the source of my rant, Alexei was not just error-prone as short last season, there were several incidences where it seemed unclear whether he knew how to play the position. This is particularly bizarre given all the talk of Alexei returning to his natural home. A bad year of catching the ball would be one thing, but failing to play at the proper depth, missing assignments, and strategic brain cramps were all the things that Beckham was supposed to be doing at 3rd, not Alexei. Even more baffling were statements from Ozzie like "Alexei is our starting shortstop for as long as he wants". I love when the manager defers to the decision making to the guy who swings at balls over his head. The Cuban Missile's fielding pct. dropped .012 transitioning from 2nd to Short last season, he committed 9 more errors in only 75 more chances, and was all-in-all a fucking heart attack waiting to happen at the most important position in the infield. Yet there has been no discussion of switching him back to 2nd, as the Sox would rather jerk around the prize of the farm system who's only played SS, rather than unseat the guy who came out of Cuba touted as someone who could play 4 positions. Motherfucker.
On a lighter side, Alexei recovered from a crappy start to have a not-awful year at the plate. He's distracting on the base paths, and has a lot of pop for someone near the bottom of the order...where he belongs...forever. I like him for 20-25 HRs and 75 RBIs. Hell, he had almost 50 walks last season, anything is possible.
Grade: B-
Omar Vizquel: Omar might very well play 162 games this year, all of which where he comes in as a late inning defensive replacement. And he probably should. As the only player on the roster with a vivid memory of the Carter administration (He was probably still in Venezuela, and who knows how politically conscious he was when he was 12, but whatever) the bat and foot speed is pretty much gone, but legendary defensive instincts are legendary defensive instincts. Very simply, Omar is never a threat to kill a man in the 2nd row with a throw to Konerko, and Alexei is.
Grade: B-. I can't abide grading him higher than Alexei because I do not believe he should start over Alexei beyond spot duty. For his role he's probably a A-, but I'll put him at a B+ because I honestly don't believe this team has a position player deserving of the letter A, and Omar gets docked for being the most recent chapter in Kenny Williams' collection of players he really wanted 6 years ago, failed to get, but was then overjoyed to sign when they were washed up and available. Prime example of this tendency: Roberto Alomar.
Brent Lillibridge/Jayson Nix: One of these two Biff Lohmans (A literary reference! On a White Sox blog! NOW we're getting fucking novel) is bound to make the 25-man roster. Maybe they won't...that'd be swell. But most likely when a certain Kansas City acquisition is melting down in June we'll be talking ourselves into one of these dreamboats. Lillibridge is fast, and it's always fun to flick the game on and have a "holy shit, do we have a 15 year old girl playing Second Base?!?" moment. Jayson Nix supplies power, and is Lance Nix's younger brother (Ok, that's worthless, my bad). Given 500 AB in a season Nix might very well be capable of hitting 25 solo home runs. He's raking in Spring right now, but I'd just as soon spend the last roster spot on a good pinch-runner than 10 solo home runs, and one would think Ozzie would feel the same way. Expect to see Nix though, because nothing ever works out.
Grade: D+
Third Base:
Robin Ventura: Another year, should be another Golden Glove for Rockin' Robin. Ventura backed up his always stellar glove-play with a career year at the pl--wait........
Oh fuck.
Mark Teahen: In the book Moneyball, Teahen was discussed as a player who could become the next Jason Giambi and, hhhheeeeyyyyy
2009 Mark Teahen .271, 12 HR, 50 RBI, .734 OPS
2009 Jason Giambi .201, 13 HR, 51 RBI, .725 OPS
So Teahen had 225 more ABs, I can still see it. In addition to his underwhelming fielding (.956 pct at 3B), Teahen also post comments on Twitter as his dog. I cannot decide whether this is more crazy than it is lame. I am not a fan. A few years back as an exercise of pure schadenfreude, I would read a Kansas City Royals blog just to read them crazily bemoan their underwhelming prospects and frugal front office. The writer of this blog was very high on Teahen (sidenote: he could have been Kenny Williams, I do not know for sure). He did not regard him as a power hitter, but saw a promising 6 or 7 guy who could spray the gaps and knock in 70-80 runs a year. Playing in the bandbox that is the Cell, it's possible that Teahen could reach plateaus of 20 HRs and 80 RBIs, but it's most likely we're getting a 3B version of Chris Getz.
Grade: C. At least we got rid of Josh Fields.
Outfield:
Carlos Quentin: A healthy Quentin (That feels weird just to type) will be re-installed as the everyday left fielder (or right fielder, who the hells knows where Juan Pierre is going) this year after last year's plantar fascitis-a-thon. While installing the oft-injured Quentin, whom Guillen once said ran like "an old drunk", into the DH slot and replacing him with a righty-lefty platoon of Jones and Kotsay in the outfield would seem as obvious to some as the sun exploding, the White Sox choose the road less traveled. As such Carlos will once again try to break this string of sub-140 game seasons that has spanned, oh, his entire career by diving around like John Belushi in the outfield again this season. He struggled to get rolling for average in the spotty time where he was available last year, but a healthy season virtually guarantees 35 HR and 110 RBIs. An awful lot hinges on this.
Grade: B+. I would give him an A, but I can't trust him. 150 games of Quentin is an A. 90 games of Quentin, 55 of Jones and 17 of Jordan Danks is a B+.
Alex Rios: Is there a chance that last year's waiver claim of Rios was dumb for BOTH teams? On one hand, the Blue Jays let a major piece they invested tens of millions into walk for nothing. You're not really supposed to do that. On the other hand, the Sox seemed to stake $60 million on a player who was the living embodiment of the September nosedive, with dogging rumors that they never wanted to actually acquire Rios. Not smooth by either side. Now Rios is in camp with one of those Matt Thornton-the-white-sox-coaches-are-so-awesome-they-fixed-his-swing,-his-mental-approach-and-his-lovelife-immediately stories. A .970 Spring Training OPS would seem to support such stories. Also, at 29, he is still in his physical prime, making a complete dissolution of his skills unlikely. Rios' two best years were in the 20-25 HR, 80-85 RBI range with a .850 OPS, suggesting that he was never really going to be worth his contract, but more likely what we were hoping Brian Anderson would be. Ain't nothing wrong with that.
Grade: B. I think. These grades are less interesting than I thought they'd be.
Juan Pierre: The real boom-or-bust spot in the roster. If you buy into OPS as dogma, Juan Pierre is a marginal player. Hell, if you buy into OBP, he's not that great. He doesn't draw nearly enough walk to still get a good OBP on even slightly down years for his batting average. Ozzie will try to squeeze every ounce out of his running ability (unless he's lobotomized before opening day; an increasingly real possibility), so Pierre has every reason to have a banner year unless you feel that the lack of space in the White Sox outfield compared to the locales of his prime years (LA, Florida, Colorado), gives him less room to spray his weak flares. There's a good chance that Pierre is the spark plug of the offense during an 100 R year, or is mid-year tradebait as we try to give time to future leadoff prospects like Jared Mitchell and Jordan Danks. I don't see a middle ground.
Grade: B-. His OPS for 3 out of last 5 years is sub .700. Come on, now.
Andruw Jones: I like Andruw Jones for this year and this year only. Two straight crappy seasons, two straight injury shortened seasons, two straight seasons of fat jokes, AND the fact that he's been forced to settle for a one-year, low-paying deal. When will Andruw Jones ever be this motivated ever again in life? Hell, he's being forced to play for the White Sox for crying out loud. If he has another single half-decent year in him, this will be it. His back is against the wall. A guy who never took his fitness seriously even in his prime has come to camp 20 pounds lighter. This has all the earmarks of a comeback season. I understand we can't in good conscience give prime playing time off the bat to a guy who hasn't sniffed .260 in three years, but once he gets hot we should ride him till his knees explode.
Grade: B+. That last section had a strong 'You're going to regret writing this' feel to it.
Alejandro De Aza: Uh...he's on the active roster...decent AAA numbers....no, no, I am not wasting my time. This has taken forever to write already.
Starting Five:
Jake Peavy: I don't want to just expect the world, but there's no reason this guy shouldn't be pretty darn good. Yes he was hurt all of last year, but he made at least 27 starts for six consecutive years before that. I'm not going to get anymore freaked out about him getting roughed up for one start in Spring Training than I would for one start in the regular season. He will probably get roughed up at least twice during the year, and it will be our collective responsibility to not lose our shit. The conditions of the Cell will probably push his ERA over 3.40, and I wouldn't be shocked if he gave up 30 HR making the transition from Petco to U.S. Cellular. He's still a fierce competitor who should give us 15 wins.
Grade: A-
Mark Buehrle: This is probably not a man who should have a no-hitter and a perfect game in his career. He simultaneously can't overpower anyone, but owns the longest streak for consecutive batters retired in MLB history. He's too crafty to ever be counted out, but doesn't have the electric stuff or dominance to ever be considered an ace. The baffling nature of his career is epitomized in his spring training stats. 0-3, 2.70 ERA, .362 BAA.
What?
So he's not winning, but people aren't scoring on him. People aren't scoring on him, but he's getting shelled.
Expect 11-15 wins from Buehrle, expect an ERA that stays under 4.00, and expect no reasonable explanation for it.
Grade: B+.
John Danks: Sometimes it feels like Danks should be ahead of these other two guys, typically when his cutter is working and he is displaying Buehrle's influence on him by working quickly through the lineup. Other times his hand is purple. With his circulation issues reportedly behind him, Danks should be the real contender of the staff to finish in the top 5 of the Cy Young race, but it's up to him. Danks seems to spend an inordinate amount of time in his own head, and lacks for run support at times. With all of his talent, the absence of a breakout season this year will raise some real questions.
Grade: A-.
Gavin Floyd: Probably the best stuff on the staff, and the shakiest control. Gavin may throw a no-hitter one day (he flirted with a few in '08), but he will never throw a perfect game. The big right hander stays very up in the zone, but can get away with it when he's landing his breaking ball for a strike. His control problems allow for hitters to wait for a get-me-over pitches up in the hitting zone, and Gavin's style can tend to oblige. Still, Floyd's stuff, size, and strength means that he can be regularly dominant, which is pretty damn good for a No. 4.
Grade: B+
Freddy Garcia: With all the pedigree that Freddy Garcia came into the league with, it's hard to imagine him being completely washed up by age 33. However, watching him start last year and this spring and witnessing his inability to crack 90, the fact that he's drenched in sweat by the second inning, and the look on Ozzie's face that says "If you weren't married to my cousin, you'd be coming out of the bullpen" all combine to beg the question; "What's wrong with Daniel Hudson?"
Grade: C-. Hudson probably isn't ready, but isn't one over-30, overweight, junkballer who can't crack 90 enough?
Bullpen:
Let's hurry it along, I'm sweating like Freddy Garcia here.
Closer
Bobby Jenks: Maybe now that's healthy he'll throw with more authority. Maybe the weight loss will give him better conditioning over the life of the season. Or maybe since '05 he's lost at least 5 miles off his fastball and can't throw his breaking ball for a strike anymore. I could've sworn he was gone after last year, but apparently the Sox don't hesitate to shell out the big bucks for a closer with a 3.71 ERA, who blew 6 saves in 35 chances and is positively useless in other relief situations. The fact that this man has the nerve to be gruff against suggestions for improvement from management when his performance has been so steadily on the decline is irksome. His spring performance has been largely abysmal, but has improved since his calf was checked out. All else aside, Bobby and his ghastly blonde chin-beard doesn't put the fear of God into anyone but Sox fans these days, and is almost certainly worth more in a trade than he is as a stopper.
Grade: C-
Set-Up Men
Matt Thornton: This is not the answer. Matt has been absolute dynamite as an eight-inning man, a pitcher who can get six outs in extra-inning games, and as a lefty-on-lefty specialist, which is precisely why he should stay here. Thornton doesn't do much else but blow hitters away, I'd prefer someone with Jenks' change of pace between his fastball and his hook as a closer, but that's irrelevant. Thornton shouldn't move to closer not because he would struggle, but because he's simply too invaluable in his current role. There's no hyper-dominant lefty with a 97mph heater and a mean streak ready to step into his role, so he should stay put.
Grade: A
J.J. Putz: Your new closer! Yet another case of the Sox picking up someone who's been banged up for cheap right as they're becoming completely healthy. Putz is back from elbow surgery and ready to return to form. Now while he does the dreaded soul patch that has marked God-awful Sox closers of the past (KOCH! KOCH! BILLY KOCH!), this is a guy who was completely unhittable in '07 and is capable of a very high strike out rate. I like him to take over the 9th once Jenks blows 10 saves in a row/gains 50 pounds/bleaches his back hair.
Grade: B+
The Rest:
Tony Pena: Got better as the season went along last year after initially looking like a long shot to throw a strike in a major league game after coming over in July. Becomes even more puzzling when you remember that the Sox dealt their top 1st Base prospect for him, presumably to make room for Dayan Viciedo (One does need to make a LOT of room for Viciedo*). He can eat some innings, but is definitely the type you need to pull right away if he doesn't have it.
Grade: C
*He's fat
Scott Linebrink: Started out gangbusters in '08 and looked like a shrewed signing, then became incredibly invested in a quest to throw a perfectly straight fastball and gave up 70 hits in 56 innings in the process in '09. Now he's keeping the hits down in the Spring but has become a walkaholic. Useless in either regard. 6 run leads are not safe with this man.
Grade: D-
Randy Williams: I thought we got rid of this guy....oh well. Proof that lefties pitch forever, last year was Randy's first year in the bigs since '05. And his debut was in '04. He's 34 years old.
Outstanding.
He's tearing it up in the Spring. He's thrown 11.1 scoreless innings with a .62 WHIP. Yeah, whatever, I'm sure he can take the Charlotte Knights all the way to the top.
Grade: C+.
Sergio Santos: Big arm (98mph), cool name, no big league experience. At the very least, he will be our go-to-guy when we want to bean someone in the head. He could be a rookie sensation who overpowers guys, or he could blossom into one of our set-up men in a year or two. Most likely he'll see garbage innings to start out.
Grade: I have no clue.
Daniel Hudson: If he were ready, would we really have had the Freddy Garcia section earlier? Destined for the rotation, the big right-hander has only walked 1 in 16 innings this Spring. Let's just agree to be happy about that, and not discuss anything else.
Grade: Not ready for prime-time
Outlook:
Phew! I'm spent. I love the Sox this year, why else would I have chosen to document this season? A love of writing? Ha! Preposterous. The rotation (minus, minus, minus Freddy Garcia) looks very strong, and the front four could easily combine for 60 wins. While Ozzie has talked a great deal about making a transition from being a power hitting team, a healthy Carlos Quentin carried the offense in '08, and is poised to do so again. There are no superstars in this lineup save for Quentin, but Teahen is the only potential hole. The defense can't help but improve from last year, and if a rejuvenated Jones is combined with Rios and Pierre in the outfield, Carl Everett running after bloopers with a refridgerator on his back in center will be a distant memory.
91 wins.
However, one cannot really predict the outcome for this team without analyzing some of the competition in the division. Cleveland (late run near the end of last season aside) traded themselves out of contention till...well...goodness, who can say? There is one word to describe Kansas City: Frisky. Billy Butler and Alex Gordon are too good to not eventually produce, they have a very good 1-2 top of the rotation with Greinke and Meche, and there is always the chance that Chris Getz in explicably wins the triple crown in some sort of crazy revenge barrage. Ok, so maybe that won't happen, but the Royals could finish .500. Minnesota suffered a significant blow with Joe Nathan bowing out for the year, but it's far from crippling. Liriano is rumored to have his slider back, and their lineup still has two MVPs in it. Even with a non-descript rotation beyond Liriano and former Sox washout Jon Rauch as the best candidate for closer, this team will be competitive for the division. Detroit is still too loaded to not to be the media favorite for the division title. Verlander is perennial Cy Young contender, Rick Porcello is building off of an excellent rookie season, Miguel Cabrera is an absolute monster when he commits himself, and the Tigers will not miss Curtis Granderson for a moment with Austin Jackson patrolling center. Ultimately, I feel that much of the Detroit core is too old, with Ordonez, Guillen, Damon, and Inge all past their physical primes. I'll take the Sox in the Central, and to go 13-0 in games I attend. They damn well better.
Re-reading this post, the middle relief makes me very nervous, and should do the same to you.
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